ENACT 15 mC

Diagnosis of historic centre

The first task consisted of carrying out a diagnosis of some of the most important aspects of urban life in the historic centre, such as: demographics, housing and tourist flats, and commerce. The following are some of the results obtained by the UPV team. This first assessment allows to know the problems of the stakeholders and to plan the next tasks of ULL Valencia leading finally to the co-creation of better spaces for urban life.

Demographic data

According to the most recent census, carried out in December 2024, Valencia has a population of 830,606 inhabitants (Table 1). The municipality covers a surface area of 55 km2, equivalent to a density of 15,000 inhab/km2, if the districts of Huerta Sur, Norte and Oeste are excluded. As these are the largest districts, with scattered housing, they would alter the interpretation of data for the city centre. The nucleus of the historic centre, with 30,002 inhabitants, has a slightly higher density, with 17,752 inhab/km2. Although there is no consensus on the advisable range for an optimum population density, it could be said to currently vary between 12,000 inhab/km2 and 35,000 hab/km2.

Moreover, the data analysed show that among the residents of the historic centre, 46% are Valencian. This represents an alarming decrease compared to the figures from 2002 (57%) and 2011 (53%). According to the tendency forecasts, considering these data (expanded in Table 2), in the year 2035 around 35% of residents in the historic centre will be Valencian unless this situation comes to halt. This is an alarming drop in autochthonous population, who in recent years have been driven out of their usual residence, in most cases due to the effects of touristification and the transformation of historic centres into multicultural commercial centres.

In recent decades the increase in the number of foreign residents in the city has been exponential. In 2002 the city had 738,441 residents, only 4% of them foreign. By 2011 (792,054 inhabitants) this proportion had increased three-fold, exceeding 12%, and in 2024 (830,606 inhabitants) foreign population accounted for 25%, also making up 30% (of the 30,002 inhabitants) in the historic centre (Table 2).

Inhabitants in historic centre by neighbourhood: El Carmen (7,161); La Seu (3,245); La Xerea (4,137); Sant Francesc-Universitat (6,073); El Pilar (5,352) and El Mercado (4,034).

Housing vs. touristic flats

The 830,606 people living in the city account for a housing stock made up of 418,232 dwellings, of which almost 5% (19,453) can be found in the historic centre. Throughout the municipality over 20% of these dwellings lie empty or are second homes, and this figure increases to over 40% in the historic centre.

An INE census of accommodation for tourist use shows a total of 1,278 dwellings dedicated to tourist accommodation rentals, with a capacity for 5,128 people. These figures do not match those provided by Generalitat Valenciana, recording dwellings with official licences: 1,484 dwellings, capable of accommodating around 6,000 people in the historic centre. In neighbourhoods like El Mercat, tourist accommodation accounts for 18.3% of almost all housing stock, with a further 12.7% in La Seu, and almost 10% in El Carmen.

Residential vs. touristic use in historic centre

Effects on economy and commerce

According to a survey carried out by Exceltur in May 2022 in tourist neighbourhoods from six Spanish cities, including Valencia, 77.7% of residents in tourist neighbourhoods stated that accommodation for tourist use had increased the price of housing, while 68.4% reported that it had disturbed life in the neighbourhood to the point that usual residents were being driven out. In response to this phenomenon, many neighbourhood groups and collectives from the historic centre have organised protest movements, especially since 2017. With cries of “Ciutat Vella no está en venta” [Ciutat Vella is not for sale] they demand new strategies to fight touristification (Fioravanti, 2022). These initiatives are similar to others seen in Barcelona, Madrid, Paris, Berlin, Venice, San Francisco and Rio de Janeiro. As a result, local identity elements are lost and commercial spaces for residents are transformed into an uninspired offer of convenience and food stores geared towards tourism. The new Special Protection Plan for the Historic City Centre (PEP Ciutat Vella), which came into force in early 2020, offers a stable regulatory framework for the entire historic centre for the first time. As stated above, there is a catalogue of 49 historic commercial establishments known as ‘emblematic establishments’, some of which have been in operation for over 150 years. They were included in the catalogue either because their activity has been uninterrupted over generations, or because the premises have conserved the typology, original furniture or other heritage elements contemplated in its 49 fiches. It is alarming that almost half of these emblematic establishments have closed in the space of barely five years, despite being protected.

The oldest hardeware store in the city, founded in 1886, closed in 2020.

Conclusions

The results, obtained from the statistical data provided by Valencia City Council, show that despite the increased number of inhabitants in both the historic centre and the city overall in the last two decades, there has been a reduction in the number of residents born in Valencia. Since 2002 the population has increased by almost 100,000 inhabitants However, in the same period, the number of foreign residents has increased almost seven-fold. In addition, over these two decades, the number of Valencian inhabitants has progressively dropped by 5% throughout the city (with occasional exceptions) in every neighbourhood of the historic centre.This loss of autochthonous social fabric in favour of foreign population linked to tourism involves a series of issues which are difficult to combat: the increase in housing prices and the disappearance of proximity traditional commerce. Between 1999 and 2001 the price per square metre was around 1,000€ and by January 2025 this figure had reached 2,800€. This increase is mainly the result of the increased volume of tourist rentals which in the different neighbourhoods of the historic centre accounts for 10 to 18% of residential housing stock. As a result of the higher number of foreign residents linked to tourism and the reduction of the social fabric, proximity commerce in the historic centre has been transformed. In addition to the closure of traditional or artisan establishments offering what were considered everyday basic products and services, there has been an increase in the number of franchises aimed at satisfying the tourist experience. In short, what is happening is that the historic centre of Valencia is being emptied out, despite the fact that objective figures indicate an increase of 5,000 inhabitants. These temporary residents or second-home residents, mostly foreigners with high purchasing power, erase the local identity and drive away locals who have been rooted there for generations.The importance of these results lies in the new line of research, never seen before in Valencia, which they open up: the study of the historic centre from the perspective of 15 minute cities. However, the limitations of an approximative study such as this should be taken into account, despite the interesting readings and interpretations it offers. While statistical data have always been available, they have not been used for this purpose, and it would be interesting in future to carry out studies which are not limited to being “approximations”.